Every stat on this page is real. I pulled them out of the Prior Lake MLS and didn’t filter for meaningful patterns. Correlations without causes, coincidences without lessons. Make of them what you like.
Based on 2,762 closed Prior Lake sales, 2021 through today.
One of these goes out every Friday in the Prior Lake Events newsletter. The whole pile lives here.
Prior Lake homes with “stunning” in their listing remarks sold for $240,000 more than homes without.
$763K avg vs $523K · n=466 / 2,143
Homes described as “charming” sold for $80,000 less than homes not described that way.
$491K vs $571K. "Charming," it turns out, is code. n=159
Homes whose listings use the word “oasis” sold for $226,000 more than homes whose don’t.
$783K vs $557K · n=101
“Won’t last” homes cost $170K less than the average Prior Lake home. Urgency is starter-home code.
Won't last n=36, avg $404K, avg DOM 23.2. Overall avg $574K
Listings containing the word “dream” sat on the market 22 days longer than listings that didn’t. Overselling has a cost.
57 days vs 35 · n=252
Homes marketed as “paradise” sat 26 days longer than the average Prior Lake listing. Paradise is a warning label.
Paradise n=29, avg DOM 63.8. Overall avg DOM 37.6
“Breathtaking” Prior Lake listings sit 11 days longer than the average.
Breathtaking n=81, avg DOM 48.7. Overall 37.6
“Impeccable” homes sat on the market 25 days longer than homes that made no condition claim at all.
Impeccable n=15, avg DOM 59.8. No-claim baseline DOM 35.1
“Must see” in the listing actually correlated with selling 4 days faster, not slower. We assumed commands backfired. The data says otherwise.
Must-see n=115, avg DOM 33.7. No-claim n=2,647, avg DOM 37.8
In Prior Lake, the word “opportunity” correlates with exactly nothing. A word that means “please buy this” and signals nothing.
Opportunity n=353, avg $574K. Overall avg $574K
Prior Lake homes listed “as-is” sold in 22 days on average. Homes listed as “move-in ready” sold in 26. Honest beats aspirational.
As-is n=20, avg DOM 21.7. Move-in ready n=220, avg DOM 25.7
Homes described as “cozy” averaged 2,830 sq ft. Homes described as “spacious” averaged 2,838 sq ft. They’re the same size.
Cozy n=350, avg 2,830 sq ft. Spacious n=1,041, avg 2,838 sq ft
Homes called “quaint” are 461 sq ft bigger than homes called “spacious.”
Quaint n=24, avg 3,209 sq ft. Spacious avg 2,838 sq ft
Listings that promise a “completely updated” home are describing houses built in 1980 on average — 17 years older than the typical Prior Lake home.
"Completely updated" n=26, avg YearBuilt 1980. No-claim baseline 1997
“Newer” homes in Prior Lake were built in 1991 on average — nine years older than homes whose listings don’t claim newness.
"Newer" n=297, avg YearBuilt 1991. No-claim baseline avg 2000
Listings that say “lovingly maintained” describe homes built in 1988 on average — twelve years older than the Prior Lake baseline.
Lovingly maintained n=16, avg YearBuilt 1988. No-claim baseline 2000
Prior Lake listings longer than 900 characters sold for $261,000 more than listings 201–500 characters long.
$697K vs $436K. Avg PL listing: 753 characters
Three or more exclamation points in the listing remarks had no measurable effect on anything. Volume is not persuasion.
$570K vs $564K · n=666 / 1,943
Third-quartile homes use more exclamation points than million-dollar homes. Mid-tier tries hardest.
Q1 1.55 per listing. Q3 ($466K–$675K) 2.09. Q4 ($675K+) 1.86
The average Prior Lake house number is 10,523.
Max on record: 23,750. Min: 1
Homes with “13” somewhere in their house number sold for $195,000 more than homes without. The unluckiest number is apparently pretty lucky.
$761K vs $566K · n=104 / 2,582
Palindrome house numbers — 12321, 5445, 7887 — sold for $117,000 less than non-palindromes.
$453K vs $570K · n=34 palindromes
House numbers divisible by 11 sold for $35,000 more than house numbers that aren’t.
$605K vs $570K · n=243 / 2,443
Prior Lake homes with house numbers divisible by 7 close 7 days faster than homes whose numbers aren’t.
Div-by-7 n=410, avg DOM 29.7. Not n=2,314, avg DOM 36.9
In Prior Lake, houses with all-even digits in their address sold for $166K less than houses with all-odd digits.
All-even n=92, avg $417K. All-odd n=179, avg $589K. Mixed (89%) avg $583K
Prior Lake homes built in even-numbered years sold for $30,000 more than homes built in odd-numbered years. Nobody has a theory.
$597K vs $567K · n=1,267 / 1,334
Homes built in a year ending in zero (1970, 1980, 1990) sold for $120,000 more than homes built in a year ending in 8.
$640K vs $520K · n=218 / 229
Homes built in the 2020s averaged $839,000 — the highest decade average in Prior Lake on record.
n=247 built 2020–present. Pre-1950 average: $448K
The oldest Prior Lake home to close in the last five years was built in 1895.
Sold $400K on October 20, 2021
37% of all Prior Lake closings happened on a Friday.
1,018 of 2,724. Every other weekday combined is about even with Friday alone
Tuesday Prior Lake closings averaged $53,000 more than Thursday closings. No explanation is forthcoming.
$608K vs $555K
Homes closing on a Friday the 13th sold for $46,000 less than homes closing on any other day of the year.
$524K vs $570K · n=25. Small sample
37% of Prior Lake sales closed above list price in the last five years.
1,016 of 2,724. Over-asking group averaged 18 days on market
Prior Lake homes listed in December sat on the market 70 days on average. Homes listed in April sat for 27.
Dec n=101, avg DOM 70.3. Apr n=278, avg DOM 27.2. Mar–Jun all under 35
Homes listed during Christmas week closed in 19 days on average — the fastest window of the year.
Christmas week (Dec 22–28) n=16, avg DOM 18.7. Rest-of-year avg ~38
Twice as many Prior Lake homes close on the last day of the month as close on the first.
Last-day-of-month n=197. First-day n=96
Prior Lake homes that closed on Halloween sold for $52K less than homes that closed on any other day.
Halloween n=19, avg $523K. Rest-of-year avg $575K
Prior Lake homes priced ending in 900 (like $499,900) sat 9 days longer than homes priced ending in 000. The retail $X.99 trick doesn’t translate.
Ending-in-000 n=1,613, avg DOM 33.8. Ending-in-900 n=834, avg DOM 42.3
Streets named “Road” averaged $194,000 more than streets named “Avenue” in Prior Lake.
$706K vs $512K · n=218 Road / 333 Avenue. Same city
Streets named “Path” closed at 102.1% of asking — the highest markup of any street suffix in Prior Lake.
n=28 Paths. Walking beats driving
Homes on streets with “Lake” in the name sold for $149,000 more than homes on streets without it — including the streets not actually on the water.
$714K vs $565K · n=75 Lake-named
Prior Lake homes on “Boulevard” sat 22 days longer than homes on “Path.”
Boulevard n=38, avg DOM 53.6. Path n=28, avg DOM 24.3. Trail and Circle both ~33 days
The most-sold street in Prior Lake over the last five years is Wilds.
65 closed sales. Runner-up: Deerfield (60)
Prior Lake homes with more bathrooms than bedrooms sold for $224,000 more than homes with more bedrooms than bathrooms. The bathroom is the luxury indicator.
$785K vs $561K · n=236 bath-heavy
Homes without an HOA sold for $126,000 more than homes with one.
$626K vs $500K. Selection bias admitted
Prior Lake homes with a four-or-more-car garage averaged $1,010,000.
n=222. No-garage homes averaged 136 days on market
Subdivisions with “Shores” in the name sold for $376K more than subdivisions with “Hills.”
Shores n=47, avg $850K. Hills n=111, avg $474K. Estates n=198. Woods n=126
Haven Ridge is the fastest-selling subdivision in Prior Lake, at an average of 7 days on market.
34 sales. Rest of town: 36 days avg
Homes called “cozy” that don’t have a fireplace sold in 12 days — the fastest group in the entire dataset.
Cozy + no fireplace n=21, avg DOM 11.9, avg $413K. Cozy + fireplace n=288, avg DOM 29.1
In Prior Lake, homes on a creek or stream sold more than twice as fast as homes on the lake. The lake gets the prestige; the creek moves.
Creek/Stream n=17, avg DOM 23.5, avg $781K. Lake Front n=214, avg DOM 54.1, avg $1.24M
Lake Front homes whose listings use the word “oasis” closed in 19 days — three times faster than Lake Front homes that don’t.
LakeFront + oasis n=11, avg DOM 19.0. LakeFront overall DOM 54.1
Lake Front homes listed in October sat on the market 115 days on average — more than three times as long as Lake Front homes listed in May.
Oct n=13, avg DOM 115.5. May n=38, avg DOM 33.8
Lake Front homes in Prior Lake were built in 1985 on average — 12 years earlier than the rest of town.
Lake Front n=205, avg YearBuilt 1985. Rest n=2,429, avg 1997
Lake Front listings that use the word “dream” sat 25 days longer than Lake Front listings that don’t. The overclaim penalty compounds at the high end.
LakeFront + dream n=31, avg DOM 79.2. LakeFront no-hype n=110, avg DOM 45.9
Lake Front homes that mention “sunset” sold 15 days faster than Lake Front homes that don’t. West-facing is the hidden variable.
LakeFront + sunset n=54, avg DOM 38.9. LakeFront overall DOM 54.1
New construction is three times rarer on Prior Lake’s lakefront than on the rest of town. Lake lots don’t come up.
Lake Front 4 of 214 new (1.9%). Rest 162 of 2,548 (6.4%)
Among Prior Lake homes with lake frontage recorded, the sweet spot is 100–149 feet — they sold for more than homes with 200+ feet. Diminishing returns on frontage.
100–149 ft n=31, avg $1.65M. 200+ ft n=20, avg $1.24M. 50–99 ft n=76, avg $1.25M
The highest-priced Prior Lake home to close in the last five years sold for $4.25 million.
Frost Point Circle. Built 2021. Closed July 18, 2022
The lowest-priced Prior Lake home to close in the last five years sold for $68,000.
180th Street. Closed June 30, 2021
All figures pulled directly from the NorthstarMLS feed. Scope: closed sales, City = Prior Lake, MLS-permitted-for-public-display only, January 2021 through today. I didn’t run significance tests. I didn’t try to correct for selection bias. Sample sizes are noted beside each claim so you can judge them yourself. If a finding seems too clean to be true, it probably is.
None of this sells a house. I keep finding it because I’m in the Prior Lake MLS every day. I’m a local agent, I pull this data myself, and sometimes I follow a thread that goes nowhere just to see where it doesn’t go. When a number actually matters, like what your home is worth or when to list it, that’s the part I do for real.
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